Monday, May 16, 2011

Follow Up on the Morganza Spillway

Last night I listed the energy companies that would likely be impacted by the opening of the Morganza spillway over the weekend. You may recall that there was a short term positive divergence throughout the sector (in both stocks effected and not effected by the opening of the spill way). Here are the stocks listed last night and what they look like this morning.

APA
 Heres APA's 1 min 3C chart this morning, it gapped lower only to head into positive territory for the day, since a negative divergence on the 1 min chart has set in and APA is back in the red.

COP-This one would have been effected either way, but it seems the opening of the spillway is more advantageous as their downstream production which would have been effected should the Morganza remained closed is about 247,000 barrels a day as compared to the site which could be effected by the opening which produces about 2600 barrels a day. Still, theres been a short term negative divergence and a slight pulback, although COP remains in the green.



CVX-
 CVX is right at the last level of support for the top. This intraday chart depicts 4 attempts in the last 3 days to break above that resistance. Each one has been met with a negative divergence sending CVX back below the important support line. Although CVX gapped lower on the open today, it did make another run above that support level, only to see another negative divergence turn it back down below the support level. This seems like a good candidate.

 PQ has seen a nice move off the positive divergence.

 PQ also happened to be one of the stronger positive divergences as you can see on this 10 min chart.

SFY
 SFY also gapped lower and headed into the green, most likely off that short term positive divergence. Right now, although its still in the green, there is a leading negative divergence.

SGY
 SGY, like most others, also opened lower and moved higher, again most likely off the short term positive divergence noted last night. Since a negative divergence has set in. This is also another that showed a more positive disposition then the rest of the group as you'll see below.

a 15 min 3 day positive divergence.

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