More on Greece

I don't know whether this has any immediate market value or not (trades), but looking at the Spiegel Story,
and the follow up denials. So there's supposedly an emergency finance meeting tonight to deal with the "Greek problem" (sounds like a chapter out of Pulp Fiction as do the denials).

The French Finance Ministry can not confirm nor deny an emergency meeting, the Austrian Finance Minister dodged on the issue and just said that an E.U. break up is "unthinkable", which says nothing about the meeting. Germany, where this all started, says "there is no PLAN for Greece to leave the Union", that's what the meeting is for, to avoid that possibility, again dodges on the question of an emergency meeting tonight. The IMF... HAS NO COMMENT!

Come on already! Greece has ZERO credibility and needs to restructure their bailout. They defaulted on the terms and lied about it within 6 months of getting the bailout! They aren't happy about the deal other countries, namely Portugal  are working out and the government is having huge domestic problems.

So why not float a threat? Look what it did to the Euro

 For perspective-check out recent volume

A closer look. Remember Spiegel released the article today, but it takes time to track down sources, verify, etc so the initial threat may have been made at the white arrow -again note the volume and the second arrow is where the story broke.

Even if Greece has no intention of breaking away, which arguably may be good for them to be able to devalue their own currency. In any case, when you have no credibility, no levers, why not go for the Nuke option and float the rumor? The move down in the Euro and resulting move if it happened wouldn't be a "great for exports scenario", it would be a flight out of the Euro which would cause bank runs and all kinds of other problems for the Eurozone. Basically, every member nation would be penalized, they'd be stuck with the debt and contagion would take on a whole new meaning.

So do I think there's legs to the story, HECK YES!

Is there a trade here? Not sure quite yet, but it could be a spectacular one if the worst unfolds.

And as usual, when a major change of character takes place, you need to take notice.

 My Trend Channel isn't an auto pilot channel that you set parameters for, it takes the actual trading character and adjusts to it so when you have a break of it like we see here, something big has happened and rarely do these come back. So far the break is borderline, but this needs to be watched.

3C's relative confirmation of the trend in FXE to a major shift in a short period of time. All of this leads me to believe the story has legs.