Monday, May 9, 2011

PSLV Stop Adjustment

I'm reading more and more ( there's an article out today about how a bunch of hedgies got taken to the cleaners on the oil/silver move down. Remember that the leverage being utilized on commodities and FX is much greater then that used on equities so even a small move can impact a portfolio dramatically. Additionally, these guys are so big, by the time they get selling anything meaningful, the volatility in the market or choppiness kicks in and they're at another loss. THIS IS the edge I talk about that you have as a small investor, you cannot only pick your battles, but you can get out of the way reasonably quick when you need to.

So as per my post earlier today describing how Mr. Hunt was burned when he went to collect physical silver by the Comex margin hikes, which had a glaring conflict of interest where nearly half of the board members were short billions of dollars of silver, it becomes a very unpredictable environment. 

However, if there's to be additional silver upside then the 60 min trend channel for now, i the correct channel to be using as a stop. You can see that it's been able to hold swing moves fairly well and at this point, I see no reason to count on silver producing anything more then a swing move, if that changes then the stop will change as well, but for a swing move, this hourly TC seems to be the best fit. Again, it depends on your disposition toward the trade, is 10% enough for you to take a profit or are you looking for the bigger move? If 10% or so is reasonable for you considering the unpredictable environment and if that many hedgies got burnt, it's an unpredictable environment, then you may want to stick with the tighter stop, in which case it's a 30 min TC and currently at $17.00

No comments: