Monday, May 9, 2011

USO stop

Earlier today we looked at USO and possible stops.

 This trendline represents an area we were watching for a breakout, there's some volume there, but not much and a little consolidation has formed.

 The 5 min chart is in pretty god shape, there's a small neg. divergence which I believe is the consolidation.

 The same is true of the 10 min chart, but all in all it still looks pretty healthy in the short run here.

 Here's the earlier 15 min TC stop I mentioned, which has locked in more profit on the upside, from about $39.50 this a.m. to close to $40.50 now.

 Depending on how you feel about commodities and potential margin hikes, I think it's reasonable to consider a little wider stop, this is the 30 min TC I also posted which probably wouldn't get hit even if w had a reversal (unless it was a waterfall sell-off) until about $40.25 and it gives a little more room for a pullback.

If you are of the mindset that you don't really care about a 2%-3% gain and want to try to play this for a larger move, then you might want to consider expanding the stop out to a 60 min trend channel, it would probably still take you out at break even if the trade went down the tubes, but would allow for more in the way of a consolidation. Looking at the chart right now, I'm guessing that a consolidation is underway and that we need another move higher to see some volume pump into this. The consolidation breakout point as of now is around $40.80, volume would probably pick up near $41.

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