Tuesday, May 3, 2011

SLV request

 Traders fal for it again, "Place that stop" and the intraday support is taken out by one cent, a flood of sell-side orders comes through.

 Nothing falls straight down, so there will be various areas in which we'll see intraday and maybe daily bounces. Right now at the 22 day average, this is a reasonable area to expect the momentum on the downside to slow and maybe even reverse for a bit.

 Here's the earlier pos. divergence I mentioned as an intraday move, and the end of that. Now we have a small positive divergence, maybe a run back up to that trendline I just showed you and maybe a break above to sucker in more sheep. I try not to get too absorbed in these short term fluctuations, the bigger picture is what is important.

 Here on the 5 min there's also a small positive divergence.

 The 30 min chart is showing the trend in line so this is the more important chart to me.

 Here's the tighter trend channel, in the white box, that is the amount of rally it held, it's now broken, although this is meant to be used on the close, so it seems we have a change in character now for the recent rally, which leads us to the bigger picture.

This has held almost all of the silver rally, you can see in red where the target zone is, if that target zone is broken and stays broken, then something has gone very wrong in silver or at least in SLV. For now, this is the target I anticipate, how long it takes to get there will depend on how much money Wall Street can make playing games with support and resistance as shown in the first chart of this post.

I'd expect some counter trend moves, certainly intraday, perhaps daily as well. I wouldn't be too distracted by them unless the internal action gives good reason to be. Translation, don't get lost in the lines when looking at this too closely.

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