Thursday, May 26, 2011

USO

And here is my earlier concerns with USO coming into play...
We're getting very close to a failed breakout, volume is picking up on the downside a bit too.

Just as a quick reminder, these patterns, in this case, a bearish continuation triangle, "used" to follow the handbook of technical analysis and just break down, thus a bearish continuation pattern. It seems in a large percentage of the cases in which these patterns show up, they are still valid according to the technical analysis handbook, but Wall Street , the black box pattern recognition systems, etc, all know what traders practicing traditional T.A. expect-a clean break down from the triangle, and as such, they use that predictability of technical traders against them and create these head fakes. This is so very common that it's nearly predictable. So the lesson I've been trying to pass on is that these price patterns that you may see as a technical trader are usually good patterns and still reliable, especially the bigger ones, but you almost have to expect a head fake move before they do what they imply.

This is just the nature of how the market has adapted to take advantage of traders who have not. It may not seem like a big move or a worthwhile exercise, but apply 10 or 20x leverage and these head fakes become very profitable for Wall Street.

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