Thursday, June 9, 2011

Chart Request-BAL

BAL is a cotton ETN.

 To preface this, I view this as a counter trend trade. This looks a lot like a top to me. Also you should be aware of the low volume in this ETN, this is what I was complaining about yesterday. There are some very specific ETF/ETNs that I'd like exposure to, but the volume is so low it would be insane. This isn't quite insane, but very low nonetheless.

 I overlaid my cumulative volume indicator on the top area and it acts like a top, volume shrinks on the rallies, grows on the declines, so once again, any long trade here I view as counter trend.

 That said, there's a pretty large positive divergence on the 30 min chart, accumulation is in the low end of th range as usual. Several days back it ran a bit too high and it looks like the specialist knocked it back down (at the red arrow) and then accumulated the dip again.

 The 15 min chart confirms the 30 min chart above, same action exactly.

Interestingly, the 10 min chart is in a leading positive divergence (the most powerful type) inside the white box so it looks like the recent round of accumulation was quite strong.

If the bis ask spread isn't too wide (what I see right now is about a $.24 spread) it may be worth a crack. I'd watch the position size unless you have a low commission structure and can afford to ease out of the position into demand. Otherwise, it looks like a decent candidate.

I looked at CORN a little earlier for someone else, it had already gapped up and I'm not a fan of chasing gaps. While there may be some more upside in the days to come CORN looks like it's going to faded to the downside today.

No comments: