Thursday, June 9, 2011

A New Algo

Firstly, I have no idea what the purpose of this algo is, but it's getting stranger and stranger. Perhaps we have some math wizards among our members who have some theories as to what's going on. If you're going to try to crack this, make sure you read the full story with the earlier updates.

One thing is for sure, it drove traders out of an uptrend in UNG, you may recall we found accumulation in late May and some members took the trade and probably made about 9%.

Here's what UNG or Nat Gas, where this fractal algo showed up last night, looked like today.
Apparently this algo showed up in the SPY as well so it may be something we'll have to deal with.

Ironically I noticed trade in USO looking rather strange the last few days and it does share some characteristics with the algo.

The strange thing about the algo is it seems to contradict the law of supply/demand. In the first negative divergence, notice the similar algo pattern-this into a distributive environment, and the series ends with a move higher. Today I updated USO and showed some long term 1 min distribution and rec'd a leveraged short, we got a quick dip right after and then a recovery.

I can't say for sure, but it appears this same pattern was playing out in USO. It hit Natural Gas which has performed horribly until the positive divergence we found in late May. Perhaps this is a commodity killer algo?  In any case, right now it's a curiosity, but it may become more prevalent. To unleash it at 9 p,m, in Natural Gas in a thin market is one thing, but in the SPY, that's another.

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