Thursday, June 30, 2011

The drop in GLD/SLV is being attributed to a drop of 1000 in initial claims (428k vs 429k), however, this reading was a disappointment as consensus was for a drop to 420k, so I'm not sure how much water that bucket carries. It does seem that a lower USD today is lending a little support to the PMs.

While I personally thought from longer term 3C intraday data that both metals would see more upside (and they may), there are some warning signs to be aware of.

GLD
 This is this morning's trade in GLD, the red spike on a negative divergence is bothersome, it looks like a mini-blow-off.

 The 5 min chart is showing the same, although it has more importance then the previous 1 min chart, the same blow-off area in red saw a negative divergence, since there has been some recovery, I suspect due to a weak dollar in part.

 Here's the 15 min chart that called the false breakout of the triangle in GLD back on the 22nd. We are starting to see a slight negative divergence on this chart as well.

 SLV looks much the same on opening trade and mid-morning recovery.

 The 5 min chart looks a bit more serious, and look at the volume.

Here's SLV's 15 min chart, it's still in a leading position which would suggest more upside, but there is a negative divergence on a relative basis, as small as it is, it needs to be watched. The last drop from an ascending bearish wedge happened quite quickly.

This is UUP/$USD's weakness today, which typically has an inverse relationship with the PMs. I'm not convinced the move up is over, but there are some warning signals starting to flash.

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