Thursday, June 30, 2011

A seemingly odd resistance area

Usually resistance is pretty well defined, I've found that resistance formed from gaps is some of the strongest. At first glance, this resistance area seems arbitrary, but just follow along.

(A) The SPY declines in a 2+ week downtrend, lows are tested at point (A) and the market closes near its highs for the day and this on increasing volume. It is very common for volume to increase at reversal points.

(B) The market breaks back below the support level formed at (A), the first day the market can't break through resistance, the second day t gaps above it, but can't hold the gains and once again closes below resistance, the 3rd day, the market finally breaks above the resistance zone, but even with the 4 day bounce, the market remains in a downtrend (lower highs/lower lows) and the last day of the bounce forms a bearish Hanging Man candlestick.

(C) Unable to effect a change in the trend, the market sells off over 3% on increasing volume and breaks support, which now becomes resistance. The next day, the SPY just barely pierces resistance, but can't hold a close above it and the market drops about 4% over the next two weeks. This is where our base started forming and today we find ourselves once again at this resistance level.

Today's late afternoon market ramp just pierces this resistance zone, for all of two minutes and sees heavy sell-sde volume while a 3C negative divergence forms and we end the day below the level of resistance.

None of the negative divergences in the SPY that I showed you earlier in the afternoon have improved, n fact they are worse.

If the market does what it usually does, then we can look for a false breakout, probably a bit above this resistance level, but with so many undercurrents now in play, it's becoming difficult to say that we will see that false breakout.

In either case, we're in the neighborhood of where we'd like to be and where 3C has been pointing to for the last several weeks.

More to follow...

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