Thursday, August 25, 2011

An Earnings Play and a 27% 1 Day Gain

3C only works because there are leak in the market and people front running or trading inside information, it's way more prevalent then you think. About a year ago I wanted to demonstrate this to members, so I looked at a lot of charts for what looked like earnings leaks. I wasn't trying to guess whether they'd beat or miss, but how the stock would react after. I posted the direction of the trade before earnings were announced for 22 stocks and got 19 correct, that's  95% success!

Otherwise I hate trying to trade earnings, I want to control as much as possible in the trade and earnings can be a wild card.

Last night I received an email from a member who was looking to play the earnings of "P" (Pandora Media). Here's the first email exchange last night.

Hi Brandt. If you have time can take a quick look at the symbol P and let me know what 3C is saying on 1 and 5 min charts. Earnings call is tomorrow. Thanks.


There's not enough history there for me to gauge which version of 3 is correct, but if there's a leak and if earnings are in the a.m. (if they are after hours tomorrow, then we need to watch it tomorrow too) then I would guess they'll have a good reaction. There are some recently positive charts over the last few days.

Good luck and let me know.

Today's email exchange:

Hey Brandt. If u have time, how is P looking today? Thanks.

All versions of 3C show the same thing, it looks like they accumulated the dip that was the worst around noon today, there's good consistency between the different versions of 3C and the different timeframes. Overall, it looks bullish.

Brandt, up huge now! Thanks

P was up over 20% in after hours, our member sold near the top and because of hi cost basis, he made 27% in a day. I didn't post this as a general trade because of the limited history, but as always, I'm willing to work with any member's ideas.

Here are a few charts of P that made me think they'd do well.

 P 30 min chart showed accumulation over the last 3 days and strong accumulation on the dip around noon today, it went into a leading positive divergence from there, the strongest kind.

 The 15 min chart looks largely the same, look at the leading divergence today, it made new highs,even though price was
$2 lower then 8/17


 The 10 min chart also showed several days of accumulation and a leading divergence that hit new high ground.

And the 5 min chart also hit new leading divergence highs above higher prices from 8/17.

This is the nature of the market, and this is the nature of our edge in being able to see what smart money is doing. It's not a level playing field at all, but if you follow along with the rest of the sheep practicing traditional Technical Analysis, you'll eventually be led to the slaughter.

Nice Trade N.P. !!!

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