GLD/SLV Update

So far both PMs are progressing just like a normal mini-cycle 1) accumulation 2) mark up 3) distribution and finally 4) decline. This is the cycle almost all stocks and indexes go through on a micro and macro basis, 3C has done a good job of pointing out the different cycles as we have progressed and the 3C signals are exactly what I expected them to be, even several days ago.


GLD

 GLD 1 min chart showing negative divergences, but a bit bouncy in this area as I'd expect. Accumulation and distribution are often in to flat trading zones and there are often last minute head fakes.

 The 2 min chart is a bit more clear. Remember I said distribution would start on the 1 min chart and then flow to the longer term charts as it gets more serious.

 The 5 min chart clearly shows the trends in accumulation/distribution and the following reversals, so we have 5 min negative divergences that are pretty solid.

 The 15 min chart is where we really look for them to show up because once they hit the 15 min chart, then we are very close to a reversal.

This is what I would expect based on countless experiences. We are starting to see the flat trading range of distribution, however, one of our best timing signals is that of the head fake, a move above this zone of lateral trade, when prices enter the lateral zone trade again, the move is almost certainly over with and we can look for the downside movement to begin. We don't always get the head fake, but probably 85% of the time, so if you are holding, make sure to set alerts and be on top of the trade.

 SLV looks largely the same, the 1 min chart is getting a bit scattered now, but its negative divergence have travelled in to the longer time frames.

 The 2 min chart shows the negative divergence, but also a recent positive divergence. I drew in the box for the trading range, watch for a break above the range as a signal of the final move before a move down, just like GLD.

 The 5 min chart again is very clear.

 The 15 min chart went negative, but is now signaling the possibility of the head fake coming soon. If you are long either SLV/GLD and the head fake comes, feel free to email me to confirm the negative divergence on the move up.

 The 30 min chart is flat, it doesn't suggest any more real upside.

Here's the SLV range and the most probable outcome with price moving out of the range on a head fake and then down in to stage 4 decline.