Market Update-Outlook

DIA 15 min gong negative, although still in a leading positive divergence, slightly above the trading range

  DIA 15 min with the 3C depth chart starting a small crest, common when the market starts moving up.
You can see this behavior after past rounds of accumulation as the market starts to rally, the first two white boxes where like 1 big accumulation period separated by a 2 day rally. Whether this is part of a trading range head fake or the start of a move higher is difficult to tell unless price moves bak in to the trading range, this is why I started buying last week.

 This shows the same as the chart above, just in the SPY.

TLT showed accumulation on 9/20-9/21 just before the FOMC announcement, I have mentioned since then that it has formed a negative divergence and now price is acting on that divergence by heading lower. This s a risk on trade as people move out of treasuries and in to equities seeking a higher rate of return, however this may still be part of the FOMC knee jerk reaction. It is very difficult to say at this point. So I am maintaining my long positions for the time and will wait to see what the market tells us. There is a short term 5 min positive divergence present in TLT now, which if the market moves on this, then equities should fall if correlations hold up, that would put them near the trading range.  In either case, we should have a profit and if we go on to accumulate more in the trading range or below it, then the move should be even bigger.