Tuesday, October 25, 2011

EUR/Market Divergence

I keep noting these, I haven't figured out quite what they mean yet. HFT algos are programmed to buy stocks on a rising Euro/weak dollar and the correlation is usually nearly perfect, but once in awhile we see these divergences. 2 weekends ago I suggested that from a risk perspective and considering why the Euro was rising (the repatriation of Euros in to European banks) that perhaps the HFTs were feeling like they were chasing an artificial rally in the Euro which actually had negative underpinnings and thus were increasing their risk. I hypothesized that they may make some changes over the weekend to their algorithms.

Here are today's divergences between the market averages and the EUR/$USD. The Euro (FXE is in red).

 SPY vs Euro

 DIA vs Euro

QQQ vs the Euro-in this case this is the worst as the Q's are close to intraday lows and the Euro at intraday highs.

There's some correlation here worth noting, if you keep a trade journal you may want to make note of this and look back in a few weeks.


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