Friday, October 28, 2011

Fair is Fair right?

Lehman probably didn't think so after Bear Sterns, but this next bit was predictable as soon as the first mention of 50% haircuts on Greek Debt were uttered, even if the real number is only 28% or so.

From Reuters:

Merkel: Must prevent others from seeking hair cuts

"In Europe it must be prevented that others come seeking a haircut," she said.
Surely this isn't the very first time she thought of this?

Sure enough...

"Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Ireland's government may cut at least 1 percentage point off its 2012 economic forecast, as a global slowdown curbs the country's export-led recovery, according to two people familiar with the matter."

This would mean Ireland will likely cut their GDP for 2012 from 2.5% to 1.5%.

France already cut their's from 1.75% to 1% yesterday.
"In Ireland, Noonan has said the government may need more than the planned 3.6 billion euros ($5.1 billion) of budget savings"

The EFSF was largely built and is hoping to be leveraged to deal with the Greek Crisis, Once Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy start seeking the same "fair is fair" treatment, it is highly unlikely that there will be an EFSF and at that point, the Germans may be printing a new or rather old currency (Newspapers in Germany are already quoting their prices in Deutsche Marks)

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