Tuesday, October 4, 2011

GLD Update

Yesterday I posted short term signals that looked like GLD would fall a bit today

Here's today's update thus far
 Here's the long term 150 day moving average, I have said that I would like to see a consolidation here given the way GLD dropped, it's also important to keep your eye on the direction of the moving average, should it turn more sideways or even turn down, that will be a game changer.

 Yesterday is marked in green, today in red. You can see GLD bounced off the 150 ma area a bit.

 The 1 min chart was showing a positive divergence this morning that led to that bounce and is still in a fairly good area.

 The 5 min hart showed the same positive divergence leading to the intraday bounce.

The 15 min chart still hasn't seen a positive divergence and I would expect to see one there before any major move away from the 150 ma occur. I view this still as part of the consolidation, but given the activity (the drop), this is an unusual pullback to the average and should be watched closer to make sure it holds. My belief is that Gold is a bubble (I know, there are 100 reasons why it isn't, just like every other bubble), however bubbles an persist a lot longer then we think and unfortunately for gold traders, the COMEX is a very difficult problem as they can create a game changing fundamental issue overnight.

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