IF You Follow the Signs, Are Honest with Yourself and are Diligent, the Truth Shall Not Be WithHeld From You

Below are the first two videos of a 4 part series dealing with the Financial Crisis. If you missed the HBO special, "Too Big To Fail", I would suggest trying to find it and watch it, it gives an excellent account of the Bear Stearns, Lehman, AIG and even GE crisis. It shows just how unprepared the world was, but more specifically the U.S Treasury, then headed by former Goldman Sachs CEO, Hank Paulson and The FAD'S Bernieanke.
However, this series presented strangely by Al Jazeera, in my opinion is even better and gives a broader perspective. *Comments continue below*

Meltdown: The Men Who Crashed the World 




Meltdown: A Global Financial Tsunami

If you think what we have seen thus far as it has been documented is bad, just wait until the truth starts coming out about contagion in Europe.
I have taken a lot of flack and some nasty emails over the last 2+ years by bulls for calling the March 2009 rally that lasted until just recently, "One of the Greatest Bear Market Rallies the World Has Ever Seen" and a "House or Condominium of Cards".
The truth is none of the underlying problems have been fixed. Money has laid a thin veneer or facade of, "All is well and will get better" over a financial crisis which in my opinion will dwarf the Great Depression.
As far back as 2007, which in retrospect was showing obvious signs of trouble, however talking heads we still on TV talking about DOW 20,000. I did a 5 part series on the market and unfortunately, part 1 didn't upload properly, but dealt with historical bubbles, many of them and probably a few you've never heard of. There was also a prediction as to what the market would look like when this is all over. I said, "This market is like being nauseous, infected with food poisoning and as much as we may not want to throw up and as long as we may try to put that inevitability off, this market will not get better until it lets out all of the poison" You can view monetary policy as the act of trying to put off the inevitable. My conservative prediction if I remember correctly was that the Dow would be trading below $5,000 when this is all done, and my not so conservative projections were about half of that.
So if you have time, here's a time capsule of 4/5 of my videos recorded on November 11, 2007 in an effort to show Trade-Guild.net readers, just how bad the situation was and still is. *More Comments Following the videos*
Part 2



Part 3



Part 4


Part 5


Many of you have seen these charts, but this hopefully puts some long term perspective on the situation, these are long term charts.

 Dow-30 1929-1934. The Crash of 1929 wasn't the surprise most people have been taught it was, the economy was showing deterioration years before the 1929 crash. The red arrows show distribution, white shows accumulation and green is confirmation.

 Dow-30 1929-1931, during the bear market decline there were at least 5 bear market rallies which tend to be strong, they are characteristically sharp and often pull money back in to the market as people believe the bear has ended. Look at some of them, a 39% rally in a month!

 This is a shorter term chart for a shorter term event, the Black Monday 1987 Crash, again, there were signs of trouble long before the crash as historians reveal.

 The 2000 Tech Bubble top, which obviously had less effect on the Dow then the tech heavy NASDAQ. This chart even shows the accumulation that started the 2003 bull market.

 The Dow 2007 market top vs. our present situation. The length of the distribution during the rally that started in March 2009 is easily confirmed by looking at volume, fund money outflows and unprecedented insider selling. As of now, this current market looks worse in the long term then the 2007/2008 market.

A long term view of the S&P-500 showing accumulation at the 2002-2003 market bottom leading to the bull market which was largely sustained by consumer purchases due to a lot of equity in their homes. We also see the accumulation of the March 2009 area. I remember seeing this accumulation at the time as I was trading exclusively for a livelihood. There was a vicious consolidation around the time when many expected the market to break lower, my self included. It was very hard to reconcile the positive divergences being see at the time, however myself and another trader that many of you know, David from Trading-to-Win, were both trading at the time and worked together and talked most of the day, nearly everyday. We wrote many articles on our websites about the infamous PPT (The Plunge Protection Team). David and I became very good at timing FADRAL REZERVE (the misspelling is purposeful due to their new ease dropping program) announcements and interventions. It was simple really, any time the market was plunging toward an important or final support level, the PPT would come out and announce something. One day as we watched the market head toward new lows, we posted, "Watch for the PPT any minute now".  A mere 10 minutes later the PPT saved the day. For many of you who know David, if you don't believe it, ask him.
The thing about kicking the can, whistling past the graveyard, and building a taller house of cards, none of it can cure the underlying illness and it will become reality at some point, you can only extend and pretend for so long.