Laughing with ZH, while laughing at Cramer

Maybe I'd give Cramer a break if he accepted my Facebook friend invitation like Aaron Task did. I don't know if Cramer's Facebook manager looked at my profile, saw my website and saw all of the not so flattering articles written over the years? Or perhaps it's the reality that I'm just not that important, but hey, Aaron Task is my buddy!!

I hope you had time today to look at the videos in the last post or you'll have time tomorrow to watch them.

I'm getting ready to shutdown for the night, I've been working non-stop since 10:30 this morning and hoped to have my market post up by now so I'd be able to take a day off tomorrow, it didn't happen, but I have collected a lot of charts, I'm made some really interesting discoveries and  still have some indicators I'm working on and I still have about 50 breadth charts to go through, but so far, I think I'm on the right track and that would be my initial "Gut Feeling" I had back on Friday, September 23rd while we were still in an accumulation zone, which means I had a pretty strong feeling about how this "bounce" from accumulation would turn out before it even started . I have mentioned this gut feeling nearly every day since then, posting chart examples and what not.

Seeing what smart money or whatever you prefer to call them, is doing (meaning they were accumulating) doesn't tell us what they plan to do. They can accumulate, drive the market higher for a few days (which can be for any number of reasons-hypothetically, there can be an event that they know about that will serve as a catalyst and they need to delay a bigger move for a period of days, or it can be related to options expiration or any of a thousand different reasons) and bring it back down to finish what they started. If there's one thing I've seen pretty consistently and if you are a member who has been around for awhile you have seen it too, Wall Street plans way in advance and usually its based on some event that they know about and that we will only find out about later and sometimes we say, "Ah Ha! They knew about this and that's why they did what they did"

If what the SEC says about the S&P rating' agency is true (specifically that they leaked the downgrade to Wall Street some time before they actually carried it out), as I showed in an earlier post, then this is one of those times that we can look at the market action from that period several months later and say, "Ah Ha!".

Some of you know that I was privy to Morgan Stanley's inter-office trade memos some time ago. I have talked about this, although today is the first time I named the firm. I thought back then, "This is going to be great, I have a true inside line". The truth is I couldn't make heads or tails of what they were doing and it made ZERO sense when looking at the market. Why? Because in retrospect, as I showed you with the accumulation of Home Builders (HOV) several years before there was a housing boom, these guys plan out their moves months and even years in advance, making those trade memos absolutely useless as far as actionable information.

I don't know how  get sidetracked on these rants, especially when my wife has been patiently waiting over an hour for me to wrap it up for the night.

So back to Cramer. This s not a new theme for me, I've covered Cramer's calls dozens of times at Trade-Guild. First of all remember that Cramer is Wall Street Alumni, he was from Goldman Sachs and had his own fund. When you consider his circle of long time friends, you'd be smart to think twice about taking his trade recommendations from his TV show, as if you- a nameless, faceless viewer are more important to Cramer then his Wall Street pals.

So Zero Hedge posted this today about Cramer's call on Kodak.   Here's the actual CNBC piece.

And here's my take on the event...

 Here's Kodaks performance since Cramer's call, if you bought and held, you lost  about 97% to date.

 Here's distribution in Kodak right around the time of the call. I have long maintained that Cramer's calls have enabled his Wall Street buddies to sell in to Cramer-created demand. We saw this VERY CLEARLY happen with oil as the multi year uptrend in oil ended. 3C called the end of the uptrend after 5+ years TO THE WEEK! Ironically it was the same week Cramer told his viewer's, "on the next bad inventories report, Buy, Buy, BUY!!!" That was the top in oil.

 Here's the date he made the comment.

Looking back at the time period, we have 1) a short period of accumulation 2) a move higher which clearly shows Wall Street selling in to demand 3) a range in the market with resistance formed 4) a very common head fake move above that resistance before the fall (note the uptick in volume and remember, it's not the huge moves in volume that you should be watching for, but more subtle moves (what everyone else knows isn't worth knowing), 5 continued distribution through out the range bound top 6)-a mystery event called "It's late and I'm tired' and 7) Cramer's call which created retail demand as Kodak was sold off hard.

This happens all of the time with his calls, if I watched the show I could probably bring you hundreds of such events.

GOODNIGHT! See you tomorrow!