Market...

Over the weekend, it was Germany/France meeting who agreed in principle to expanding the EFSF in principle, but said details would be up to a month before they came out. Today, Slovakia could derail the entire process, although I am more apt to bet with the corruption of politicians then them doing what is right for their country, over the weekend, Germany/France were the wild card, this week, Slovakia.

 SPY 1 min

 SPY 2 min

 SPY 5 min

SPY 15 min.

Remember the original plan was this-the market makes a new low and there's longer term evidence to suggest it will make a higher high, quite a bit higher as the 15 min chart didn't break down last week and hasn't now, that is why I kept my shorts "Not too aggressive", more looking for an oversold pullback.

Here's what the longer term idea looks like...

New low which we saw at the red arrow and then a move up, possibly this move would make a new high according to longer term charts, but the market was very overbought last week and showing signs of a tradable pullback, I kept my positions rather small because of the uncertainty around the German/French meeting over the weekend, which went better then anticipated and lifted the Euro 350 basis points, a recent multi year record.

Slovakia now stands in the way as they could derail the entire process, or could be using last minute tactics to extract, who knows what?

 VXX which trades opposite of the market is showing short term signs it wants to rally, meaning it would put downward pressure on the market. 1 min

 VXX 2 min

 VXX 5 min

 TLT -Treasuries 20+ year are a flight to safety trade, they trade opposite the market as well, so if the market goes down, treasuries generally go up and they are showing signs of wanting to move higher, suggesting there may be a flight to safety on market weakness. 1 min.

 TLT 2 min

 TLT 5 min

 TLT 10 min

 TLT 15 min-about the area where there's still strength in the SPY.

TLT 30 min is in line, so VXX is suggesting a short term slide in the market and TLT is suggesting that there is a flight to safety trade being put together. How or if anyone can know what Slovakia will do is beyond me.

The Euro has pulled back a little on this latest wildcard.

But the larger view of the Euro so far this week, fits with the larger view we have had of the market, the question is 1) pullback from overbought and uncertainty? 2) Whether this is the larger rally we have been talking about for 3-4 weeks now and how it plays out.

The market too is in the same zone of uncertainty, rallying on the German/French news, but rangebound on the Slovakian indecision.

This is why I'd rather have my portfolio closer to flat, I don't know whether the market can accurately assess the deliberations of a sovereign nation that has so far not supported the expanded bailout mechanism, but also hasn't said no. They have about a day to decide-tomorrow.

This is why I would like to use any downside weakness that may develop today to reduce exposure to the market, at least on a short term basis.

There are a lot of other charts too, I continue to go through them looking for any hints that the Slovakian decision is in any way known, so far it doesn't look like it, but I am VERY concerned about their susceptibility to bribes being one of the poorest of the European or EU members.