Thursday, October 27, 2011

The Party may have just hit a snag

 EUR/USD 2 p.m. change, not huge yet, but potentially.


 SPY saw some downside and pretty big candles on increased volume about the same time, you can see its divergence with the Euro. The timing isn't coincidental.

And the EUR/FXE negative divergence, also 2 p.m. ish.

So remember that this is all EFSF "Plans" not action and one of the plans was to get financing from China, well China just chimed in and they want a lot in exchange.

1) They want substantial guarantees.
2) They don't want to be seen as dumb money and don't know how this will go over with the populace
3) They want other countries (the BRICS) to kick in, Brazil (one of the BRICS) has already said no.
4)They want the EU to recognize China's market economy status, something the EU and the US have been loathe to do
5) They want the EU to split away from the US on the topic of China's currency manipulation (you may have heard about a bill in the senate taking China to task) this will cause a big rift with Washington.


China s holding all the leverage, we'll see what Europe does and what the US might do.

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