Thursday, October 27, 2011

USO Update

I still can't put my finger on the strange bits and pieces of USO trade, it should trade largely like the SPY/market because of the FX correlation, but there have been many instances in which it is found lagging or doing other strange things. At first I thought maybe Gadaffi's death changed some fundamental supply dynamics, but I don't feel too strongly about that.

The SPY is in red and the trendline where the SPY breaks to new high. USO doesn't follow. 

 USO vs the FXE-they should be in line for the most part (FXE is red-click on the chart for a larger view). You can see the red trendline where the FXE breaks out to a new high, not so for USO.

USO 1 min

 USO 2 min

 USO 5 min

 USO 15 min

Here USO trades all the same rallies and declines the market trades and even has the same large positive divergence in to this rally's inceptions, but like the market, the long term negative divergence is in place.

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