Sunday, November 20, 2011

Investors Preparing for a Black Swan Event?

A BlackSwan Event is the possibility of a crash that seems to come out of nowhere that investors are not prepared for.

The following article is not easy to summarize, so I'll leave it to you to read it, but the chart itself shows the increased risk that has appeared virtually overnight in market terms.

This is the equivalent of the EU's IMF, the EIB (European Investment Bank). Two charts that are noteworthy:


Spreads have nearly instantly rocketed past the 2008 financial crisis as EU Capital is drying up as it seeks some safe haven-(the Credit Freeze).

While the EIB (for now) retains a triple A rating, there are clear problems of a magnitude that are amazing. The EIB is backed by promises of capital injection from EU nations (doubtful that is coming) and in green holds $382.4 billion of unsecured debt, with a mere capital base of $2.5 billion, a debt to capital ratio of nearly 153:1 and that's not including pension obligations!

The rapid change in the first chart shows that investors are getting ready for a European Black Swan event.

Here's more

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