SPY Target

So far,  the SPY has been hovering right above $122, which is what I said yesterday in my Options Expiration "Market Pin" guess. There was some large open interest in the SPY $122 puts, which means to make those expire worthless, the SPY needs to close at $122 or slightly above.

That seems to be the action today as credit is not gearing up for another leg of risk thus far. The other concept which is familiar to most members is that once a serious level of support is broken, the market tends to linger or test that former support level or "kiss it goodbye", it's just the market's way of keep people uncertain.

Here would be a couple of guesses as to what any bounce might look like, if we get such a thing.

Quite a few members wrote me today hoping for a bounce to establish short positions feeling like they missed the bus, when looking at the intermediate term or a 60 min chart, clearly you haven't missed any bus, but a bounce would reduce risk on new short positions.

 The market broke below the triangle, however the lower end of the triangle still provides some support as you can see by the lateral trendline, that's exactly where the market is.

Looking at 60 min bollinger bands, a I see two possibilities if the market did bounce, 1 would be the 20 bar moving average in white, which would be a reversion to the median or the second would be to bounce to the top of the falling upper bollinger band, which would also be in the area for the "Kiss goodbye".