Friday, November 4, 2011

Update-Kiss the Channel?

 EUR/USD breaks a mini bear flag channel to the downside, this is a head fake, shorts that went for the break helped push the Euro up in a mini parabolic move upon covering as the Euro re-entered the channel and triggered covering (remember that usually for every parabolic move, there's a counter parabolic move).

 FXE since this morning's first round of accumulation and 12 pm negative divergence sending the Euro lower (breaking the above channel to the downside), note accumulation again at that point, albeit a smaller amount and another negative divergence off the mini parabolic move higher, now leading negative. There are a whole bunch of market lessons there if you take a look at the last 2 charts again, we see this same type of action on every timeframe in every equity every day.

 FXE/Euro 2 min from yesterday's negative divergence along with the entire market, now leading negative on the mini-parabolic move higher (not muh accumulation was needed for that move as the short covering did all the heavy lifting).

 Here's the SPY bear flag of 3 days, which broke down in 3C underlying trade during the afternoon (this might be considered more of a bear pennant, but that is a matter of semantics). The point is it broke out to the upside before collapsing, bringing in long trades as it looked like the flag/pennant failed, then headed lower. This is the same concept as the Euro break down today that I showed above, except instead of short sellers covering to create a mini-parabolic move, this would be longs selling to create a gap down. The other concept seen today is that of "Kiss the Channel Goodbye" as the SPY intraday breaks above it's channel in an effort to kiss the lower channel of the larger (3-day) bear flag/pennant.

 Here's a closer look.

 Again, like yesterday TLT is giving us a hint that few probably notice. TLT is a 20+ year treasury ETF and treasuries are the safe haven trade when the market is in trouble, they trade nearly perfectly inverse to the market. So TLT is in green and the SPY is in red. The SPY broke just above it's gap down open, which means TLT should be breaking just below it's open, rather it remains elevated and quite far from the trendline in green.

 And why? TLT 1 min accumulation

TLT leading positive divergence.

Keep an eye out for the down side mini-parabolic moves in the Euro and market.

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