Wednesday, December 14, 2011

AMZN Update-Why We Don't Chase

AMZN is still looking like a great short, but entries are important and can often make the difference between a profitable trade and a stop loss (even if the stock is a good short). So we don't want to chase weakness on a short, there are too many good opportunities and with a little patience you can get the position you want. Just as with long trades we don't want to chase rallies, but wait for a pullback which reduces risk, gives us a cheaper entry and a higher probability trade.

 Here's the daily chart of AMZN which shows it rallied off its lows, it would not have been good to chase and short at those lows.

 Here's what it looks like intraday. So we wait for a bounce and a weak 3C signal.

 So far there's some negative divergences forming as AMZN closes in on the unchanged mark

 You can see it here too, it may be intraday momentum HFTs/Traders taking profits.

 The 5 min chart suggests we may have some more upside to go, or it may not have caught up to the 1,2 min chart weakness being seen.

Long term on the daily, this is one of the worst daily leading divergences I have seen. This makes AMZN a high probability short, the entry is all that is left.



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