Thursday, December 22, 2011

THE BS, oops BLS Revision Factor

At WOWS we try to think out of the box, I don't swallow any of the CNBC paid iter-merials (the paid advertising in the form of a CEO interview on CNBC) or the "Cramer is out to help the little people", simply because I don't watch the station and allow any of that sewer seepage to access my frontal lobe.

Do you know how many times I've read about Cramer calling a stock a "Buy,Buy, BUY!!!" and then seen it rise for a week and then plummet?  If memory serves me correct he was carrying water for Lehman about a week before they went under. The point being, he's well connected to Wall Street as a former squid from the Goldman Sachs team and those relationships are important and trump the little people every time.

However, that's just one angle, the other is the nearly criminal lies out of the Treasury, F_E_D and in this case, the BLS. News has an effect on  the market at that moment, it generally doesn't matter a week or a month later if the news or data is revised.

The BLS just completed 2011 with a perfect record, EVERY SINGLE RELEASE from the BLS, like today's beat in Initial Claims has been revised higher at the next report... EVERY SINGLE ONE THIS YEAR! So I take this data with a grain of salt, but more importantly, beyond the BLS, this is pervasive throughout government and Quasi-Government organizations. For example, today's final Q3 GDP revision (the advance forecast, the second revision and the final revision) have all been lowered.

But then again, what else would you expect from the government?

No comments: