GLD/DZZ Update

We've been bearish on GLD at least as an intermediate top and possibly a bubble top, it was expected to bounce with the market and in doing so, perhaps set up a short ether shorting GLD or using something leveraged like DZZ.

 Here's the top (Triangle) in GLD, the 150 day moving average which has supported GLD since 2009
has also been broken, we were very skeptical about buying GLD at the long term moving average when it hit it, even though we had been waiting for the chance, it was all of the volatility that is new to the trend that caused the well-founded skepticism and now it appears GLD has broken some sort of top, I'm guessing it's an intermediate top that may form a larger bubble top. In the red square, price sure looks a lot like a bear flag, volume is correct for a bear flag as well, which is a bearish consolidation/continuation pattern. However, as watched as GLD is, some sort of head fake would seem likely unless GLD is just that weak and there's a case to be made as most Hedge funds are being hit hard with redemptions and GLD is in many cases, their only profitable position in their top holdings so selling GLD to meet the redemptions makes sense. It will be interesting to see what happens after the new year.

 On the bounce, this is a 50 bar m.a. on a 15 min chart, volume has been horrible on the bounce.

 There's also a triangle today and I am guessing it wants to breakout to the upside before giving ground (head fake).

 The intraday Bollinger Bands are suggesting a directional move and soon.

 The 1 min 3C chart supports a head fake breakout, but...

 When we move to the 5 min above and 15 min below, you can see the obvious bearish distribution, so a head fake might just make for a good entry to short GLD.

 15 min negative leading divergence almost making a new low

 Here's the short on GLD, an inverse leveraged ETF, DZZ, note the triangle bottom and breakout, with a nice pullback.

While I don't like using my x-over screen for choppy markets, it did a good job going long/short and long with no false signals, well there was a false signal in the price moving average, but the screen uses 3 confirmations and the false signal would not have been taken as a trade. More importantly, after a breakout on a new long signal, the first pullback is almost ALWAYS to the yellow 10-day moving average, which s where DZZ is at right now. So keep your eye on this one if you like the trade. I would treat GLD as a swing trade for now until it proves different, I would also use a trailing stop like my Trend Channel to allow for more then a swing trade without making arbitrary decisions about what kind of trade it is.