Friday, December 9, 2011

Credit/Risk Asset Indications

As you will see by the charts below, the market has started moving in the direction of some of the dislocations, although in this post I am only providing the intraday action, most of the indicators on a longer timeframe that encompasses the entire bounce are much, much lower suggesting the S&P/ES still has plenty of downside before closing the dislocations and thus this seems to be and have been a good place to initiate and add to some shorts.

 First the broad risk basket represented by CONTEXT is lagging ES, now for specifics.

 Note how the S&P has started to track lower and start to follow commodities, which are once again underperforming on the day and in a pretty clear divergence with the S&P, some previous recent intraday dislocations are referenced .

 The Euro is out of sync with equities to some degree today.

 High Yield Corporate Credit is so far in sync, but still dislocated on a longer timeframe.

 The market tends to gravitate toward yields which have been falling,  several intraday dislocations are pointed out and the market is starting to gravitate toward yields which are severely out of sync with the market again today. Once again as a reminder, these indicators are used to show when equities are off on their own and not supported by the typical risk assets that would move with them in a normal, healthy move, which helps identify spots of equity dislocation or where equities rally without the support that would confirm the strength of the rally. I have found the dislocations tend to mark excellent spots to look at going short equities, or if risk assets were outperforming equities, then going long equities.


Financial momentum is falling off as the day progresses.

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