Thursday, December 1, 2011

A Few Commodities...

 This is the CCI Commodity Index with a linear regression channel, breakouts or channel busters to the upside like this one in the white box are in my view, a change in character. Looking for these channel busters is virtually the only reason I use linear regression channels as I have found more often then not, a break above the channel like this often is a last ditch move before a reversal, it's a little like parabolic moves in equities that almost always reverse and usually in just as extreme a manner.

 GLD has broken below it's channel today (down -.75%) with wide red volume, which is different then a capitulation like spike that often is found at an upside reversal point.

 Here are the more capitulation like volume spikes that are often found at the bottom of a move ready to reverse up. SLV is testing the lower channel (-.60%) and volume is subdued, remember that stocks can fall of their own weight and don't need volume to confirm, however I highlighted the area because as of now, there's no heavy capitulation like volume spike that would lead me to believe silver is ready to bounce off the bottom channel.

 I'm happy to see USO has filled a small gap and broken through the LNR Channel. I'll be looking for a test of channel resistance around $38.75.

Copper also filled a gap and saw not only a channel buster in doing so, but a parabolic one as well. It's now testing the lower LNR channel and down about 1% on the day.

No comments: