Monday, December 12, 2011

Risk/Credit indicators

Now this (TODAY) is the reason I created these indicators as markets follow credit and when there are dislocations between equity and risk/credit markets, that's an ideal time to look at a trade as equities have "Over reacted", whether that be for a long or short trade (short in this instance).

The short term risk/credit assets confirm CONTEXT as they have sold off sharply today, but intraday are a bit stronger then equities, again seemingly indicating that equities are panicked.

 Here intraday commodities sold off, but are a bit stronger then equities.

 Longer term, these are the dislocations that make bounces/rallies like this lower risk to short as commodities have not confirmed the risk on rally in equities and in fact have behaved terribly and the S&P looks like it is getting ready to close that dislocation gap between the two.

 Intraday yields are up a bit, even though they also sold off, longer term they are dislocated as well.

 The market is tracking broad weakness in the Euro and as I said on Friday's late strength, "I don't trust it, it looks like a trap or traders switching position on disappointment with the EU summit/ECB response'.

 Longer term, you an see what kind of trouble the Euro is in and it is reflecting the EU risk as it just took out the bounce low and is close to taking out lows from the early October rally. The S&P is severely dislocated and look at what happens when it is in such a state, the last time we saw a quick drop, but this is even worse.

 Long term rates in white at October lead the market higher and again in the second white box, but they have been dislocated bearishly for the market 2x now and this time they are making lower lows.

 High Yield Corporate sold off, but like CONTEXT is a bit stronger then equities intraday, not so longer term.

Financials failed to confirm Friday's rally at the EOD, part of the reason I said I didn't trust it and it was correct. There's a slight bit of strength in financial momentum vs the S&P, but all in all, I would say that any strength that may materialize, may be your last chance to add or initiate shorts according to these charts. It doesn't look like the market has long before it follows risk/credit's lead.

More coming....

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