Monday, December 12, 2011

VIX/VXX Volatility

Some people have noticed the VIX hasn't moved much today...
 The VIX (vs the SPY in red) is also sometimes called the fear index and historically it has an inverse relationship with the market, so a low VIX reading typically would indicate complacency and is associated with the market topping while a high VIX reading would indicate fear and the market bottoming. Bak in the late 1990's and early 2000, the VIX was very reliable, the range was usually 20-40 and when you hit one or the other you'd see the market move, I personally have seen some pretty bad extremes that are multi-year lows that didn't move the market much, it could be QE at the time or it could be it is simply not as useful as it once was. In any case it hasn't moved much today, but the closing candles, if it closes this way would form an upside Harmi reversal pattern and upside in the VIX would mean downside in the market.

 I can say that the VXX intraday volatility indicator has been looking pretty bullish on important timeframes, it also has an inverse relationship with the market so a move up as 3C seems to be indicating with positive divergences would be bad for market prices. 2 min chart.

 Positive 30 min chart.

Positive 60 min chart.

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