Friday, January 20, 2012

Another look at Financials

 XLF bearish wedge and the typical breakout of the wedge. XLF has had 8 days outside of the wedge, not one set of good follow through days. I expect to see some distribution through the wedge, it's the breakout of the wedge where experience has shown us that the distribution gets a lot heavier. There's a reason this happens, during the wedge smart money can get away with some distribution, but astute traders will generally recognize the wedge as being bearish, some may even short the wedge. Upon a breakout of the wedge, traders now see the wedge as a failed pattern because 100 years of technical analysis books have taught the masses that a breakout means either the wedge was never a valid bearish pattern in the first place or 2) that it is now a failed pattern. Shorts who cover on the breakout usually give the breakout a little more juice, but most traders have also been taught, 'When a pattern fails, reverse course and trade in the opposite direction", in this case, that would mean going long. Wall Street has traders figured out and has for a long time. The longs now entering the market are of course buying, which gives Wall Street plenty of demand to sell short to and go undetected as someone has to take the other side of the trade. This creates a bull trap for Wall Street and when the wedge finally does fail, the longs add the juice to the downside move as they ramp up supply by selling shares at a loss. This is a pattern we have seen play out over and over again. Ask yourself, why hasn't the breakout of the wedge produced a steep climb higher? Because there's no institutional money buying it, they are selling it.

 The 30 min chart shows the start of the wedge and how 3C has deteriorated as the wedge has moved to a breakout.

 This 15 min chart has the breakout marked in the yellow box, look at 3C during this time.

 Here's the long term 2 min chart, note how it is even more negative at the breakout rather then confirming or positive.

And the 1 min chart is falling apart much faster now, I would think the trap is set and about to be sprung.

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