Friday, January 20, 2012

Early Market Update

First GOOG had a big EPS miss that looked a lot like a margin squeeze, now this morning GE misses on revenues and all of this after the Q4 earnings have seen hundreds of pre-releases lowering expectations for earnings season. Most commodities I've looked at thus far are off in early trade including USO which broke its bear flag yesterday , Copper as we saw an early warning in FCX yesterday. We'll have to see how Technology fares as there were warning flags yesterday before the GOOG miss. Today is also op-ex Friday so we'll want to watch for any action that is odd in the market as usually op-ex Fridays tend to pin and we don't often see much downside movement.

 DIA 1 min, 3C is still very negative although the Dow and R2k are the only averages holding slightly in the green.

 The 2 min chart as well as the  5 min below and 1 min above, would all tend to suggest fading the Dow's early strength would be a reasonable intraday trade. Op-ex complicates that a bit, but it may be worth looking in to.

 DIA 5 min

 IWM 1 min

 The IWM 5 min is where the problems for the average are building. We'll have to keep an eye on how this plays out.

 The QQQ 5 min also suggested a move down and is still suggesting a further move down.

 Thus far intraday the SPY is in line with a couple of attempts to move higher all shot down by negative divergences thus far.

 Here's the problem I saw yesterday in the intraday double top I mentioned several times and how 3C fell apart in to the second half of that price formation.

You can see it here again on a 5 min chart, it quickly went from a relative divergence and a double top is an easy way to spot a relative divergence, to a leading negative suggesting the failure of the second half of the pre pattern discouraged bulls or was part of a smart money set up.

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