Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Assumptions are bad

My bad, I assumed as normal the FOMC announcement would come at the normal time of 2:15, instead it came at 12:30.

Here's the bottom line:

No QE as I assumed, they have the voting members, but 2 things would prevent that at this stage 1) an election year in which the F_E_D has its hands tied unless the economy gives them explicit political cover and 2) the inflation effect on commodities such as oil/gas and everything that is used to make anything-again, not something you want in an election year.

As was widely expected, they extended the ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) from 2013 through 2014 which anchors expectations.

Other then then that, I see few items of note, from a quick browse of the statement bullet points, other then ZIRP, it's relatively unchanged.

Market reaction:
I'd all it tentative and messy, remember though as I warned yesterday, the initial reaction to F_O_M_C policy is almost always wrong and reverses either that day or within a day or two.

Let me check the underlying trade.

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