Wednesday, January 25, 2012

UNG follow up

 While I'm happy to see that UNG is trading out of correlation with the market ( note the 12:30 area), the volume at the intraday high was quite large on a doji star, possible churning there.

 As I thought earlier today, the volume is definitely on the high side, this is good IF the candle closes like the one with the white arrow, but if the daily price candle keeps that longer upper which, it will likely mean a reversal, especially if the wick becomes larger. If the close is near the top of today's range then it should be bullish, otherwise, I'd expect a reversal, but remember that doesn't have to mean down, it could consolidate sideways as well and a pullback isn't the worst thing in the world so long as it is moderate, it keeps the stock from reaching overbought tensions.

Since the resistance zone hasn't been obvious, I've been looking for what is causing it, the best I have come up with (as the 22 day moving average hasn't been touched yet) is the 60 min 200 bar average which has been resistance in the past. The volume on this chart quite clearly shows a transition from a probable capitulation event to a more bullish trend.

In the short term, whichever way we close today, I don't see this as a problem for the newly emerging trend, it's just a high volume day like this with a long wick on the daily candle will likely cause a deeper pullback or a longer consolidation.

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