Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Credit/Risk Asset Update

 Commodities are significantly underperforming again today.

 Here's the recent trend in commodities vs the SPX

 This is the long term trend and is evidence of the problems in China.

 Rates which should be in sync with the market have dropped significantly , even today they failed to respond to the market.

 Here's a long term view of rates, you can see when they are in sync and what happens to the market when they diverge like they are now, just look at the July/August plunge.

 There's no risk appetite in High Yield Credit, generally credit leads, equities follow.

 Even High Yielding Corporate Credit is selling off, evidence of an atmosphere where there is little appetite for risk, in fact we are seeing de-leveraging of risk in these indicators that tend to lead the market.

 Finally, as I mentioned Friday, Financials are coming out of sector rotation, today shows evidence of that with my custom financial momentum indicator lagging the market badly.

This is when financials were leading the market as their rotation climaxed.

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