Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Alarming Rise in the Black Swan Indicator

This Sunday I showed you the SKEW Index which is brought to you by the CBOE (same place the VIX comes from). The SKEW is a rather new tool for the CBOE and is meant to reflect the probability of a "Black Swan" event.

The SKEW runs between around 100 (probability of a market crash very small) to 150 with an average of 115. I noticed the rate of change of the SKEW had increased in the post linked above and thus it was worth a post as a possible warning.

Here's what the SKEW looked like Sunday


And here is what it looks like today (1-day change), note that it has increased significantly in one day, near multi-month highs. This is one indicator you may want to keep an eye on, especially with 3C long term charts looking the way they do.


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