Thursday, January 12, 2012

Credit/Risk Indications-Industry Rotation

 CONTEXT and ES are both moving down, although ES (red) is moving at a faster clip. It seems the CONTEXT model didn't start to top out until after the 8:30 economic data came out, whereas ES topped out a bit before, in one of my first posts I showed that topping in ES with a negative divergence 45 minutes BEFORE the economic data came out. CONTEXT can only respond to price moves and incorporate them in to the model after they happen, which means that my question as to whether the economic reports were leaked earlier seems to be backed up here as well.

 Commodities which were strong Tuesday started falling apart yesterday, especially toward the close as equities melted up, right now they are underperforming the SPX slightly.

 As you can see Commods in green and the Euro in red, the Euro strength which is normally tied to Commodity strength, is not helping commodities much thus far.

 Nor is the orange Euro helping the SPX this morning.

 Credit refused to participate in yesterday's melt up off the lows and is now in sync with the SPX.

 For the first time all week, Financial momentum is in line, rather then outperforming the SPX.

 On a short term Sector chart, you can see Financials (green) underperforming. Energy is also underperforming while Industrials and Basic Materials are outperforming the S&P (Basic Materials seems a bit odd).

On a longer horizon gong back to December 23rd, you can see how financials have been coming in to rotation, Utilities were moving out of rotation (today they are holding their own), Staples had been moving out of rotation and today they are stronger, Energy has recently started moving out of rotation, Basic materials and Industrials remain in rotation while Tech falls. The 3 main pillars, Tech, Energy and Financials all seem to be moving out of rotation, although Financials really just got started today and 1 day a trend does not make.

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