Jobless Claims Miss Big-Retail Sales Miss

Here's the breakdown:

Released on 1/12/2012 8:30:00 AM For wk1/7, 2012

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
New Claims - Level	372 K	375 K	352 K to 405 K	399 K
4-week Moving Average - Level	373.25 K			381.75 K
New Claims - Change	-15 K			24 K

And you know that this will be revised to a 400k+ print just as the December 31 was revised higher by 3k, that will make a 400k print.

The reaction?



Interestingly, 3C was at a negative divergence at the 7:45 highs, 45 minutes before Jobless Clams hit the wire.

Here are the Retail Sales Numbers

Released on 1/12/2012 8:30:00 AM For Dec, 2011

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Retail Sales - M/M change	0.2 %	0.4 %	-0.2 % to 0.9 %	0.1 %
Retail Sales less autos - M/M change	0.2 %	0.4 %	-0.2 % to 1.0 %	-0.2 %
Less Autos & Gas - M/M Change	0.2 %	0.4 %	0.1 % to 0.6 %	0.0 %

The .1% print came due almost entirely due to auto sales which were ramped up with cheap government loans for GM vehicles, ex-autos would have printed a decline of -.2%

Comments from Bloomberg:

• Control sales drop “a very bad sign for the condition of the consumer, bodes ill for personal spending” in 1Q, says Bloomberg economist Joseph Brusuelas
• Underlying detail “suggests a very difficult holiday sales season,” points to “difficult earnings season for retailers"
• Supply/production estimates on commodities ‘‘much stronger than expected,’’ means ‘‘several commodities could weaken further,’
• "Big surprise” in 0.4% decline for non-store retailers, proxy for Internet sales