Friday, January 13, 2012

RIMM TRADE MANAGEMENT

You may remember the RIMM Earnings Call, I went long RIMM in the WOWS Options Model Portfolio using March 2012 $14 Calls which were in the money at the time. 3C had looked very positive on the 15 minute chart, but the earnings (which I believe beat, but maybe had some bad guidance or something like that) failed to impress and RIMM dropped -11% overnight. The 3C signal was still positive so I held the calls, since RIMM has moved up as high as $16.57 yesterday (above the $15.00 area where I put the trade on. Right now I have nearly a 21% profit in the calls and I intend on closing them. I still like RIMM, I just feel that a pullback is probable, which would kill my profit. f everything goes to plan,  will re-open the position. If you have a longer term perspective and perhaps are not dealing with time decay in options, you may want to just ride out a pullback.

Here's the Calls bought at $2.70 and currently worth $3.25 now.



Here are the RIMM charts...
 RIMM seems to have broken above a resistance level, you can see support at the level at the white arrows, resistance at the red arrows. If RIMM were to produce a good follow through day today, I may regret closing the position, but it would have to put in a price gain, close near the top of the range and see volume pick up. The 50-day moving average is also providing some overhead resistance the last 2 days.

 Here's the 60-min chart with a 50-bar moving average, I'm thinking we may see a pullback to the m.a. around $15.50.

 The daily crossover screen I use is getting more bullish, only the middle window custom indicator has to crossover for a confirmed long signal. I think it is possible and maybe probable that we get a pullback  to the 10-day moving average which is also at $15.50, this s usually the area the first pullback moves toward. It may give RIMM some strength on the pullback to go ahead and make the next leg higher.

 Here's the 1 min chart which went negative at yesterday's somewhat parabolic move.

 The 5 min chart shows accumulation after the earnings gap down, but currently 3C should be a bit higher then it is.

 The 15 min chart is why I entered the trade, even after the 11% gap down, it's continued strength is why I held the position and I'm glad I followed 3C rather then price acton. However, the 15 min chart should also be higher then it is right now. It's not looking negative, just not confirming like it was, it may need the pullback.


 Longer term the 30 min chart was not positive when I first entered the trade, it is very positive now and it makes me think there will be more upside in RIMM to come.

The 60 min chart was not positive either, it is now as 3C is higher then it was a the same relative price level represented by the green trendline.

I'm still bullish on RIMM, I just think a pullback is looking more likely and with the options, I'd rather cash in the profit and wait for the trade to set up as a high probability/low risk scenario before re-entering.

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