Friday, January 27, 2012

RVBD an example of long term distribution

With distribution length and depth, it's akin to, "The bigger it is, the harder they fall". Furthermore RVBD beat on earnings yesterday, should be up right? No, the market is about perceptions and today the US decoupling perception was shattered with the release of Q4 GDP. In RVBD's case, guidance didn't quite meet consensus despite both a top and bottom line beat. I post these charts as an example because it has many things in common with the broad market.


 The long term 4 stage cycle in RVBD 1) accumulation 2) mark up 3) distribution/top 4) decline

 Since the start of the new year RVBD has racked up an impressive 27% return through yesterday as it also made a new local recovery closing high yesterday.

 The short term 3C chart, unlike what we have seen in several stocks like UNG , URRE and several others, did not confirm, this would mean there was distribution at the new high and since traders like buying new highs, it's easy for Wall Street to sell short in to demand without raising any suspicion as someone has to take the other side of the trade.

 Here's RVBD's 3C chart during its run up, leading negative, distribution of the entire run or short selling by smart money, this chart looks almost identical to the market's.

Today, RVBD gave back nearly all of the new year gains in 1 day and it is just getting started.

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