Thursday, January 5, 2012

This one didn't slip by...

Just within the last hour or so, the biggest news of the New Year regarding Europe's eventual demise just came out.

From Reuters:


Greece EU/IMF aid schedule pushed back three months



Here's the news which s akin to a game of chicken or maybe skydiving without a parachute.

BRUSSELS – Greece’s entire schedule of emergency loans from the European Union and International Monetary Fund is being pushed back by three months because of a delay in the payout of a tranche in 2011, the European Commission said on Thursday.
The next 5-billion euro tranche for Greece that was originally scheduled to be paid in December 2011 is now to be paid out in March 2012, Commission spokesman Olivier Bailly said.
A further 10-billion euros that Greece was originally to receive in March this year, will now be paid only in June and all of those sums can also be delayed if inspectors judge Athens is failing to deliver promised fiscal reforms.
“That cannot be changed,” Bailly said, referring to the three month rhythm in paying out tranches of the first Greek rescue program.

And this is why this is potentially the house of cards coming down...

Greek PM Says Country Faces Risk Of Disorderly Default In March


ATHENS (Dow Jones)--Greece faces the risk of a disorderly default in March if it doesn't complete negotiations for the country's second bailout starting later this month, Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said Wednesday.
In a copy of his comments made in meetings with employer and employee groups, Papademos said the coming weeks and months are "exceptionally crucial" for the country as Greece needs to secure funding from European peers and the International Monetary Fund. Among the financial pressures faced by the heavily indebted government are EUR14.5 billion of bonds expiring in March.
"As a result of our actions and decisions in coming weeks, everything will be decided," he said.
His comments are in line with stark warnings from other government officials stressing the gravity of talks with representatives from the European Commission, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank on Greece's second bailout worth EUR130 billion.
Details of the deal, which comes after a first EUR110 billion bailout in May 2010, remain unsettled, particularly a provision calling on creditor banks to write down a significant portion of their Greek government bond holdings.


If we put 2+2 together, apparently L. Papademos must have seen this coming, if not then this is bigger trouble then we can imagine. In essence, if Greece doesn't get the bailout tranche soon, they default in March. A 3 month delay=default. Default in Greece= house of cards comes tumbling down.

What in the heck are the EU/IMF doing?


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