Thursday, February 16, 2012

2 p.m. is here-Market Update

 You probably don't need the indicator to see momentum is fading, this includes yesterday as well, but I applied Rate of Change to the SPY just to make it visually clear.

The SPY chart makes sense being that it has followed the Euro nearly tick for Tick today on a parabolic move (which looks very bullish, but they rarely are), the Euro has lost momentum too right around $1.31, I suspect a break of $1.31 will start the Euro on a parabolic move down.


 Short term trade is showing distribution in the DIA 1 min

 The 2 min never had a change today and is actually worse.

 Here's a close up of the 2 min.

 ES is showing the same and volume has fallen off substantially


 The IWM as well..

 The QQQ 1 min doesn't even need arrows to point out the divergence.

 The 2 min is leading negative, which is a lot worse.

 SPY 1 min never confirmed and is falling off.

As is the 2 minute.

The EUR/USD and a divergence with the SPX will probably be the most solid signal, but we are already seeing signs that look like the market is anticipating the Euro to reverse soon. The closer we get to the close, the more important the trade becomes.

For any short term traders that want to take advantage of the overnight volatility, if you can compare the Euro/FXE to the SPY and see a deep divergence between the two (often the market lags the FX divergence by 15 - 30 minutes) and the market is still elevated as the Euro starts moving down (especially below $1.31) it would probably be worth a speculative short on the SPX that would likely be closed out on the open tomorrow. This could be done with PUTS or buying something like SPXU (inverse SPX leveraged ETF).

In the next half an hour or so, I'm going to have to get prepared for a funeral at 4 p.m., however I'll be covering the closing action as soon as I get back home tonight.

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