Thursday, February 16, 2012

USO Update

 USO's brief foray in the sun and out of the darkness of its down channel seems to be ending. This channel was simply too well formed in one of the biggest markets, it was too obvious and a shakeout, too irresistible, it was bound to happen and that's the reason I favor wider stops on initial positions as USO, while in a downtrend, still hasn't broken below its 3.5 month trading range, although it was very close to it before the break from the channel, which makes a shakeout look even more sensible.

 Volume near yesterday's highs was large, the moves were small or non-existient, looking a lot like churning or upside capitulation.

 The 1 min 3C is turning down, however there's still a small bit of retracement possible in the yellow area.

 The 2 min chart with the original accumulation for the last swing up from the bottom channel is now leading negative and has passed that along to longer charts.

 Like this 5 min chart...

And the 15 min chart is leading negative, which is really the perfect timeframe for a move of this length, or a swing. I'd be looking at opportunities to short USO at these levels, there's a natural stop close by at $39.20 0n a closing basis.

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