Tuesday, February 21, 2012

FCX-Copper

 The Copper Index 9green) vs the SPX (white), as is the case with commodities in general, Copper has been underperforming since the market put in the Oct. 4th low, more notably, Copper has recently turned down over the last week or two.


 FCX hit resistance and topped with a clear "Shooting Star" candle at the yellow area, right in an area of heavy overhead resistance, after a few weeks of lateral action it gapped down on increased volume.

 There remains a gap in FCX which we must assume will be filled as most gaps are, however it looks like the back of this year's trend has been broken.

 Longer term 60 min 3C shows the negative divergence at the late July decline (that took the entire market), however there were no gaps in that decline (yellow), FCX'x performance since early August when the market gained a foothold has been very poor. There's an accumulation area in early October (same as the market) and then FCX went in to a triangle as the market went lateral after the strong October rally (white box), since then FCX has turned down sharply in what appears to be the back of the trend being broken.

 On short term charts like this 5 min, it appears FCX wants to attempt to fill the gap mentioned above, which has been the market norm for nearly a year now.

 The Copper Index, JJC looks similar on a 60 min chart, with accumulation in early October and what looks to be the back of the trend broken.

While not as impressive in terms of time, there was a late day positive leading divergence in JJC late Friday afternoon.

I suspect after attempting to fill the gap, FCX will likely head for the $36 area initially.

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