Thursday, February 9, 2012

HY, Financials & Commodities

 Commodities showed us some early correlation with the SPX, but have fallen off since noon time.

 High Yield Credit has refused to follow the SPX and make a higher high for 5 days now, this would suggest de-leveraging in Credit, which is a trend that has been underway for a while now.

Financial momentum showed nearly perfect correlation with the Financial heavy SPX early today, since then, even with a deal on Fraud-closure being struck, Financials have under-performed all day. Perhaps the deal was a sell the news event?

A closer look at Financials...
 A little surprisingly, Financials' daily chart looks more like the Dow then the SPX, but there are some pretty big money center banks as Dow components. Today's close is what is called "Dark Cloud Cover", a bearish candlestick pattern that often leads to a reversal. XLF was only $.03 away from making an even more bearish, Engulfing pattern. Either way, the flat period after a breakout from an ascending wedge (which is the reverse of what technical analysis books teach), is a common event before a reversal, it's the head fake concept. The breakout from such a large bearish wedge "should" have brought in buyers on the failed pattern. I think the reality is that retail alone can't move the financial sector. Over the last 5 days, XLF has gone nowhere at a -.14% decline. Volume was also higher today on the bearish close.

 Here's the same head fake-looking pattern in XLF as we see in the Dow-30, we also see the ATR for XLF drop over 40% as XLF rallied in the wedge. Just as a function of higher prices, one would expect the ATR to increase, not to mention a solid rally should see a wider range and stronger closes.

 My version of Demark principles, buy and sell signals. Notably this is the largest sell signal in well over a year.

 The daily 3C chart from 2010-2011 through present. Daily divergences are very strong signals.

 The hourly chart, leading negative with a possible little head fake move.

 The 15 min chart leading negative.

 The 5 min chart leading negative and especially at the gap up this a.m. as a possible head fake move.

And the 1 min chart getting very ugly in to the close.

I'll check on the other major industry groups as well as their inverse ETFs

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