Thursday, February 9, 2012

URRE Chart Request

Finally back, the Doctor is going on vacation, I've never seen it that busy. In any case, URRE a long term long trade we have been eying is making a bit of a move today and I was asked about this, it's time to update URRE in any case.

 When URRE first started showing changes in the character of its trade, I warned, 'don't get too excited just yet, rarely do we see "V" shaped recoveries, URRE will need to build a small base" and as is often the case after a bullish descending triangle, unlike what Technical Analysis books will tell you, it has. When it got a little choppy a few weeks ago I said, "As long as it keeps rounding, I have no concerns" and the 22 day moving average in blue is a good way to look at the trend, it is rounding, it was getting a little ahead of itself and has corrected which is good, the stronger the base, the better.

 Here is the bigger picture of the bullish descending wedge, the opposite of the bearish ascending wedge I showed you in the Dow-30 last night. As T.A. textbooks will tell you, this wedge should break out at the apex, which it did in yellow. THIS WAS A HEAD FAKE MOVE. As I have been telling you for nearly a year, these wedges almost always act the same and that is to confuse and knock traders out of their positions. Any immediate break out without at least some small base, is suspect. So the market has changed, technical traders have not and URRE is doing what it should, these are the new rules of wedges. We see on this 2 day chart, just to clean up the trend, the rounding in price and volume, THIS IS WHAT I SAID I WANTED TO SEE. We also have a positive RSI divergence at the base.

 Short term , today we have a move of +6.45%, which is nice, but nothing compared to what URRE should do. Wedges commonly retrace their base, meaning a target of $4.00 is a rough estimate, but that is around what we are expecting. URRE can REALLY move when the set up is there. Thus far the 1 min chart is confirming today's move and is actually leading it. This is what a healthy move should look like in 3C, confirmation at the bare minimum and leading positive is even better.

 The 2 min chart over the last week or so is in near perfect confirmation . Confirmation means 3C makes higher highs with price or lower lows with price. This tells us the trend is healthy.

 The hourly chart is a very important timeframe for the big picture, here we see at least 3 major accumulation zones.

Looking at the 3 day chart, even more influential, we see a positive divergence in 2008 that led to a 300+% move, another in 2010 that led to a move of over 800% and now a leading divergence that is just as strong as any o the past ones if not stronger.

Thus far, URRE is fine, better then fine.

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