Wednesday, February 15, 2012

VIX Chart Request...

As one of the many pieces of the puzzle we must put together to gain an edge, the VIX has been one I have been highlighting as it has seen accumulation, which would indicate the VIX/VXX moving up and since they have an inverse relationship with the market, the market would obviously move down.

Here's an update of both the VIX and VXX.

 First we have my custom "DeMark" inspired indicator (sell signals in orange/buy signals in green), this is applied to the VIX and remember the inverse correlation, a buy signal on the VIX would correlate to a sell signal on the SPX. In fact, just to demonstrate, here's the same timeframe/indicator for the SPX (below).
Note the buy signal at the start of August after the July decline of 16% and the long sell signal recently in the SPX, they are essentially the opposite of what you see above for the VIX.

 The longer timeframe the signal, the more important it is, right now we have a 3 day buy signal on the VIX, the first in a long time and considering we didn't see one at the July market drop of 16%, this would suggest my theory of the market rally actually being a bear market rally and the next leg down being much worse then a simple correction. Remember the July decline was more then 16% and there's no signal for that decline on a 3 day char, however there was on the above 2 day chart (refer to the above mentioned in bold).

 Intraday we see both the VIX and market green, a bad signal for the market.

 Here's the VIX 1 day 3C positive divergence, it is one of the largest we have seen in a long time.

 In fact, it appears to be worse then the 2008 accumulation/positive divergences, we see 2 here, they correlate to the SPX chart below.

 This is the SPX in 2008 and the red arrows are where the positive divergence occurred in the VIX as the very lows, we are off the lows and therefore a little further in to the signal, which would suggest we are closer to the break in the market as you can see above there was a little lag between the lows in VIX on a positive divergence and the break in the market. The first red arrow is the same area I have illustrated dozens of times as it shares much in common with the current market rally, we can see that period was indeed a bear market rally.


 Here's the daily VXX  in green compared to the SPX in orange, note the change in character of the VXX. The period just before the 16+% decline in the SPX is highlighted in the red box.

 The 60 min VXX 3C chart went from distribution to confirmation to a large leading positive divergnce.

 Here we see the same in the 30 min 3C VXX chart with a large relative divergence and a strong lading positive divergence.

The VXX 5 min chart's move up is showing nearly perfect 3C confirmation.

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