AAPL Update

 I've seen underlying action in AAPL warning there is a problem for quite some time, however AAPL is the biggest stock and among the top holdings for major hedge funds and others. This is a ship that is too large to turn on a dime, but turning I believe it is. RSI has shown problems in AAPL for some time as has 3C, but they are now growing more acute. When a stock makes a parabolic move like AAPL has, it usually doesn't hold. This may be a small H&S top, the important level is as always, a century mark at $600 or just below, that's just a human psychology thing.

As for the parabolic run...

Look at historical chart, MSFT before 2000 is a good example, when growth goes from strong and steady to straight up like a rocket, you won't find many charts that survive that move. It is an extreme in emotion and extremes in emotion are great set ups for Wall Street. AAPL may have reached its apex when Steve Jobs passed away, it may have reached its apex because battery technology just won't allow them to build more/smaller as the overheating I-pad 3 shows or like MSFT, they may have signaled their own demise in issuing a dividend, again, see MSFT price pre and post dividend announcement. Volume is light on the way up, not what you want to see, again, look at a 5-day chart of the S&P's rally from 2002-2007, volume should expand.

 This could also be a right angle broadening top, however all H&S tops start as a right angle broadening top. Whatever it is, it's sharp.

Yesterday AAPL ran over this positive divergence on the 1 min chart. My gut feeling was AAPL would underperform the market in this bounce, I didn't know it would be this bad. What this signals to me is an overwhelming supply of hedge funds trying to all squeeze out the door at once and they don't really care too much about not being able to do it in to higher prices. I think they know the market's time in this latest rally of the last several months i just about up and they are trying to move out of very large positions in AAPL very quickly. This positive 1 min divergence "should" hold as AAPL approaches a support level.

Here's the proof of funds moving out of AAPL

 The daily chart rarely goes negative in a stock this big

 Over the last week or so, a strong negative divergence confirming the trend down.

 The 5 min chart showing the same for much longer

 The 15 min chart

 The 30 min above and 60 min below don't need annotations, the divergence is clear.

When a fund like Third Point with $8.1 billion AUM has AAPL as a top 5 position 1 month and it disappears the next, a LOT of AAPL shares have been sold. No matter how much the AAPL longs love AAPL, without institutional support, AAPL could be in for a sharp revaluation.

I'm looking for any decent strength to get in to a longer term short position in AAPL, but barring that, I'd even take it right here-as a long term position.