Monday, April 30, 2012

Bounce is still very much a possibility

In fact I'd say it is a probability. I haven't caught up with the rest of the news today, but the earlier Chicago PMI was disastrous and the Dallas F_E_D manufacturing index, other than having 1 sub index on employment that looked decent, was pretty bad. Considering, the market has held up well today, of Wall Street were not running a cycle (volatility shakeout) off the April 10th lows, these reports would have sent the market much lower and when the market break, the continuing trend of these reports is likely to do so in the near future. Remember the market is emotional above all else, FEAR and GREED and if you look at any market cycle, you'll see Fear is much stronger than Greed, take the 2002-2007 bull market and it all being taken back and then some in less than 18 months with the majority of that in 8 months.

Looking at ES however (this is short term only), they continue to add support, as I have believed all along (and we've had an excellent track record with these bounces), AAPL will be the stock to watch and I believe the market has one last upside push.

ES seems to verify that as they keep throwing more support behind it on an intraday basis (meaning the amount of support pales in comparison to how much they distribute on the moves up).

3C is nearly parabolic on ES 1 min.

I still have positions to add in AAPL, BIDU and a few other, I still feel pretty confident that patience here is the best tactic from the charts that have formed late last week and today.

Energy is one we'll have to take a close look at as it is the only real support among the 3 major sectors today. It should rotate out on an AAPL driven move and that's where we'll want to be looking to add/initiate Energy shorts in select area.




No comments: